Dr..Olfat Al-DubaiWashington Institute for Near Eastern Studies * The paper is published in coordination with the author - By announcing a new special envoy to Yemen, the Biden administration appears to be opening a new chapter for US involvement in the years-long conflict – a shift in US involvement that had previously revolved around an almost exclusive focus on the presence of Al-Qaeda (“Al-Qaeda in Yemen”).

Arabia) in Yemen.Just days after Biden announced that Timothy Lenderking would be the new US special envoy to Yemen, Lenderking appeared in Riyadh urging a ceasefire — aligning US efforts with longer-term UN efforts, including Martin Griffiths’ recent trip to Yemen. Iran for the first time. However, a commitment to ending the war in Yemen also requires the Biden administration to formulate the peace it expects, and whether it is prepared to make it against those who obstruct this peace.Bring the Houthis to the negotiating tableThe United States had previously involved itself in the issue of the Houthis' military role by first announcing its designation of them as a terrorist organization and then revoking this designation starting on February 16.

Responses to the initial classification varied greatly: both the legitimate and internationally recognized government and the Saudi-led Arab coalition considered that the classification “could contribute to ending the war in Yemen,” while other observers such as Martin Griffiths, the UN special envoy to Yemen, claimed that the classification It will make the humanitarian situation worse and worse without ending the war.

I have some reservations about the term “terrorist,” since it seems that the US administration is applying this term loosely according to its interests without offering any clear definition, and it seems that it is driven more by local concerns than by association with a specific event – ​​such as the Houthi attack on the Abqaiq oil field in Saudi Arabia.

.It is also important for the US administration to put in place mechanisms to deter the potential negative impact on humanitarian issues, as human rights and humanitarian organizations have warned, based on the new administration’s one-month exemption from human rights group

.But if the Biden administration hopes to end the war in Yemen, it must understand that it will have to create new incentives — and new sanctions — for the Houthis to seriously pursue a peace agreement.

.At this stage, it is very important to deal with the decision to cancel the classification in a way that is suitable for overcoming the impasse of the ongoing war in Yemen.

If the Biden administration hopes to make progress toward bringing the Houthis to the negotiating table, it will have to identify some other means of applying pressure, as the Houthis show no signs of stopping their assault on Marib.The reality is that the American administration will likely not be able to bring all parties to the table, unless it hints at serious sanctions against all those who obstruct the peacebuilding process, whether they belong to the Houthis themselves, or to forces that oppose the Houthi project - such as the “Southern Transitional Council.” Or Tariq Saleh's forces.Federalism is the only optionThe second question is what kind of government the US administration supports in order for the ceasefire to actually be successful.

The reality is that federalism is the only opportunity available for Yemen to develop into an effective state, and it is the only possible guarantor for achieving Yemen’s unity and sovereignty, in addition to normal and secure relations and common interests with countries in the region and outside it.

Simply put, ending the war in Yemen without moving toward federalism will only prepare the country for another conflict later.The way the international community defends governance in Yemen is important.

Establishing a federal system following a ceasefire will require a long transition period that could provide an opportunity to test the applicability of the peace agreement. While Yemen has a draft constitution that can be relied upon, its adoption as a basis for a peace agreement will require a participatory and consensus-based decision-making process. This process must achieve a balance between the concerns of all parties before subjecting the constitution to a popular referendum at the ballot box at the end of the transitional period.

This process is likely possible with full international endorsement and support for this model.

Negotiations aimed at establishing a federal state must be accompanied by a long transition period, which provides the opportunity to ensure the sustainability and applicability of the proposed solutions, and to agree on any necessary changes in order to ensure the transition to normal conditions through a referendum held within a modern, democratic federal state. However, several elements are considered particularly essential, such as: supporting the equitable distribution of wealth and power and establishing strong institutions through broad partnerships rooted in good governance, which are necessary to pull Yemen out of its current cycle of war.

The transitional period must also deal diligently with a plethora of logistical issues, starting with financial arrangements that ensure the flow of tax and customs resources from all land, sea and air ports, all the way to ensuring the flow of productive values ​​for mineral resources, i.e.

oil and gas, as well as the fishing sector.

In Yemen. It is necessary to establish a unified central bank in addition to federal arrangements that guarantee support for the national economy and pay salaries and contributions.

In addition, this phase will have to confront the severe humanitarian crises in Yemen, focusing on health while at the same time fighting poverty and famine.Federalism is uniquely suited to meeting these ongoing challenges: in particular, it has the potential to ensure that power and wealth are shared fairly between the center and the periphery .

Likewise, the implementation of power-sharing agreements, such as the Riyadh Agreement, can only succeed in the context of a federal system. This will include allowing an independent body with cross-representation of experts on the ground to bring together resources from all regions of Yemen.

Emphasis must also be placed on decentralized legislation, such as facilitating the second reading of laws through the Shura Council in the form of bicameral legislation, to ensure broader contributions to future legislation.Also, federalism is important because it has the best chance of acceptance by the conflicting parties.

It is effectively the outcome of the draft constitution that was previously agreed upon by the 2013 National Dialogue Conference, and while much has changed since then, the federalism proposal presented by the draft constitution is still likely to be the most acceptable compromise.

The Biden administration's increased intervention presents a potential opportunity at this point: all actors will be more likely to acquiesce to the federal model through a combination of guarantees and international pressure.The most likely complication lies in the need to reassure the Southern Transitional Council, which does not currently recognize the results of the National Dialogue Conference and generally seeks the secession of all of South Yemen.

What can greatly assist in this Council’s compliance with federalism is the international guarantee that provides logistical support for this process and control over implementation mechanisms.

Convincing the legitimate government in Yemen of the practical and rapid implementation of federalism will require a different approach.

Both the American administration and the international community must convince the Hadi government that its talk about the state restoring the central political structure that existed before the war is clearly impossible under the current circumstances .

Although transforming Yemen into a federal state according to a federal system is what legitimacy promotes, Actual steps on the ground and political agreements - including the Riyadh Agreement - do not suggest this conviction , as the federalism approach offers a compromise solution between secession on the one hand and complete centralization on the other. There may be a need for increased international urging.

Therefore, Biden's special envoy should make clear and emphasize that he sees federalism as the ultimate goal for Yemen: that is, the offer of a modern, civil federal state that will preserve national unity and social cohesion.

The United States will have to emphasize the failure of the fully centralized system, while the agreed-upon federal system will be tested after the Houthi coup in 2014 aborted the efforts of the National Dialogue Conference.

Accordingly, the new US Special Envoy has the opportunity to work with the United Nations and the international community to issue an international resolution through the Security Council that formalizes the commitment to support a ceasefire and negotiations based on a federal state in Yemen.In both of these cases - that is, the issue of arming the Houthis and the recent direction of Yemeni governance - the main thing is that the new American administration does not rush to seek any solution in Yemen.

It is possible that working to end the war in Yemen without clarifying the goals and implementation tools will lead to the continuation of the war in one way or another.

The US special envoy must clarify what kind of end to the war the US government supports and expects. It is unlikely to end the conflict in any other way.